With Murray returning for his senior year, Smith has a good case over everyone else on statistics alone. It’s also not hard to see why Geno Smith is expected to be the first quarterback selected in April’s draft. Fellow freshman Marcus Mariota of Oregon was also outstanding - he averaged more ANY/A, even when adjusted for SOS - and was also deadly on the ground. Tyler Bray had an outstanding 2012.It’s not hard to see why Johnny Manziel won the Heisman: in addition to outstanding passing statistics against tough defenses, he also added approximately 1,539 rushing yards (remember, this excludes sack yardage) and 21 touchdowns while averaging 8.6 yards per carry. Since he had 412 dropbacks last year (386 passes, 26 sacks), we multiply 4.56 by 412 to get his value added over average. He averaged 3.88 ANY/A over average against a schedule that was 0.68 ANY/A tougher than average that means he gets credit for being 4.56 ANY/A over average against a neutral schedule. ![]() Let’s use Georgia’s Aaron Murray as an example. I gave each quarterback credit for his value over the average ANY/A (5.82) for all of major college football over the last 8 years. The table is sorted by the final column which shows the value added over average. For each quarterback, I’ve listed his basic passing statistics, ANY/A, SOS, and - for reference only - I’ve included their rushing data, too. The table below lists the 50 quarterbacks who added the most passing value over average last year. The usual caveats apply about defenses and quarterbacks that change in ability level over the course of the year.Īfter estimating sack data and adjusting each quarterback for strength of schedule, we now can rate the 2012 quarterbacks. This method involves an iterative process, so each quarterback’s performance is adjusted for the strength of the opposing defense, which has a rating that is adjusted for the quarterbacks it faced (including the quarterback in question), and so on, until the ratings converge. So using the method described here, I came up with SOS-adjusted ANY/A for each quarterback in each game last year. So for each quarterback, we know how many passes he threw … Continue reading that decision in my data set, so going forward, all rushing and passing data will include sack data in the preferred manner (keep this in mind when you compare the statistics I present to the “official” ones).īut calculating each quarterback’s ANY/A isn’t enough, as the varying strengths of schedule faced by college quarterbacks are too significant to ignore. The player game logs at cfbstats do not identify quarterback sacks, but the team game logs do. I manually overrode Unfortunately, some estimation was involved. There’s a small problem, however, if you want to calculate ANY/A at the college level: the NCAA counts sacks as rush attempts and sack yards lost as negative rushing yards. For quarterbacks, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt is still the king of the basic stats For the uninitiated, ANY/A is calculated by starting with passing yards per attempt, adding 20 yards for each touchdown and subtracting 45 yards for each interception, and subtracting sack yards lost … Continue reading, and it is arguably even more important in college where teams play at varying different paces. ![]() There are many differences between college and professional football, but many of the same stats still matter. If you’re a fan of college football, you’re probably already reading talented writers like Bill Connelly and Brian Fremeau, but hopefully I can bring something new to the table for you to enjoy. Thanks to them, I plan to apply some of the same techniques I’ve used on NFL numbers over the years to college statistics. The Chiefs play the Baylor game on an endless loop for the other 31 teams.A few weeks ago, I discovered, which has made available for download an incredible amount of college football statistics from the last eight seasons.
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